I have a very weird theory on the way the market crash is going to hit.
At face value it will not seem like a crash at all.
inflation is expected to break records, some people saying we could see as high as 16% across multiple industries and the CPI overall.
We have not even begun to taper, rates are still at historic lows and we still have moratoriums in different states.
Rent is skyrocketing, especially in Southern California and Las Vegas. I’m seeing 2 bedrooms that were 1600 range pre pandemic that are now going for 2900 in the inland empire, absolutely insane.
Houses are still lifting in price but reaching the point of not being affordable and starting to sit longer. Homes sub 380k are still moving at a rapid rate.
I think once inflation is fully realized, our dollar is realized as being weaker and cargo continues to pile up at the harbors, everything else will continue to surge in price except wages.
Once evictions begin to really happen at the rate they should, I think home prices will just remain flat or maybe have a 5% correction.
Dollar will have I’m guessing around 15-20% less buying power, possibly even less, and due to the power of inflation will keep homes as basically the same price or slightly lower. So the 20-25% correction will essentially happen, but no one will notice it because our dollar is crap at this point.
I also see rent permanently being at this rate and climbing, homelessness will surge due to price and landlords not wanting to take the risk with the artificial intervention of the moratoriums.
Banks and hedge funds will continue to gobble up homes and satellite property management companies will be the kingpins of the housing market overseeing all of this.